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2022 results · 2024 signals · 2027 evidence outlook
2027 evidence matrix
Constituency outlook
Dated starting conditions—not projected seats or statistical probabilities.
Margin ≤1,000
High-attention seats
Cross-election check
Closest results and 2024 signal
| Seat | 2022 winner | Margin | 2024 LS segment | 2027 rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Andre | Viresh Mukesh Borkar (RGP) | 76 | INC +76 | Toss-up | |
| Ponda | Ravi Naik (BJP) | 77 | BJP +5,597 | Toss-up | |
| Velim | Cruz Silva (AAP) | 169 | INC +13,350 | Opposition strong | |
| Priol | Govind Shepu Gaude (BJP) | 213 | BJP +10,527 | Toss-up | |
| Bicholim | Dr. Chandrakant Shetye (IND) | 318 | BJP +9,729 | Government bloc advantage | |
| Navelim | Ulhas Tuenkar (BJP) | 430 | INC +5,810 | Opposition advantage | |
| Sanquelim | Dr. Pramod Sawant (BJP) | 666 | BJP +15,764 | Government bloc advantage | |
| Curchorem | Nilesh Cabral (BJP) | 672 | BJP +1,613 | Toss-up | |
| Mandrem | Jit Vinayak Arolkar (MGP) | 715 | BJP +4,405 | Government bloc advantage | |
| Panaji | Atanasio Monserrate (BJP) | 716 | BJP +2,051 | Toss-up |
Executive conclusion
The map is not simply “North BJP, South Congress”
Goa's 2027 contest cannot be read from one election. The 2022 result captured strong personal votes and fragmentation; the 2024 parliamentary election created a more consolidated two-bloc signal; the 2025 Zilla Panchayat result added a local organisational test.
10seats ≤1,000 votes8Congress MLAs joined BJP2current vacancies
The 2027 hinge
Four unresolved structures
1
Opposition coordinationA one-candidate opposition and a fragmented opposition produce very different maps, especially in Salcete and close three-way contests.
2
Ticket absorption after defectionsEight incumbents elected on Congress tickets are now in BJP. Personal vote and pre-existing BJP cadre vote cannot simply be added.
3
ST reservationThe legal mechanism exists, but the final number and identity of reserved Assembly seats are not yet notified.
4
Two open successionsPonda and Taleigao are vacant. Candidate selection and inherited networks matter more than the old result alone.
2022 statewide result